LOGIN
User Name
Password
Remember me


Register...Forgot password?
Main menu
Leagues
Gonzaga
Blue Max
Cartagena
Wooden Ships...
King Me!
VampiRing
Forum Message
Previous messagePost on the new forumNext message

City:HONG KONG, ASIA, EARTH, SOL, MILKY WAY HK
Personal Data:Male, born: January 01 1975
HomePage or other cool site:http://https://www.youtube.com/user/imdog
Membership23years 16days ago.
Last Login218days 18h ago.
Last Move6h 2' ago.
imdog is currently Offline!Send a mail to imdog


Message header
Area/Game:Blue Max
Topic:Scenarios
Subject:Re: ????
Posted by: imdog - 18years 153days ago.
Message text
flying_neko wrote:

3) The problem is that in any case the chances for the two planes to win the match are not a priori the same: better pilots might prefer the black camel.

And, in fact, this is the case. Pokerguy was in 341 of these games, with stats of:
  • 91 kills, 24 deaths on the allied camel (79%)
  • 157 kills, 46 deaths on the black camel (77%)
    So these numbers, which are much more homogenous statistically, tell us that Pokerguy is favoured when playing on the allied(!) camel.

    So, if we remove Pokerguy's statistics from the above numbers (because Pokerguy is a really good pilot, and he *can* screw the statistics), we get:

  • 707 - 24 - 157 = 526 kills for the black Camel
  • 609 - 91 - 46 = 472 kills for the allied Camel

    So this means 52.7% kills for the black Camel when we take into account that a very good player plays more often with the black camel than with the allied one... even though he does slightly better on the allied plane than on the black one!

    The expected number of kills would be 499 in this case, and the variance* is 16, so with these improved statistics we are at 1.7 sigmas from the expected result. I am pretty sure that, if one takes into account the fact that many players have played more on different sides, the deviation will be even lower. (This is left as an an exercise to the reader).


  • Conclusion: Avoid facing 1 vs 1 with Pokerguy in this scenario

    Enjoy reading fun

    i.

    P.S. @flying_neko, may I ask if u did Statistic at college

    Back to the messages list
    Messages thread
    Posting elapsed timePosted bySubject

    18years 156days litehoof [BM][SCE] ????
    18years 156days FENRIS Re: [BM][SCE] ????
    18years 155days flying_neko Re: [BM][SCE] ????
    18years 155days flying_neko Re: [BM][SCE] ????
     18years 155days litehoof Re: [BM][SCE] ????
     18years 155days FENRIS Re: [BM][SCE] ????
     18years 155days FENRIS Re: [BM][SCE] ????
      18years 153days Clangador Re: [BM][SCE] ????
      18years 153days Clangador Re: [BM][SCE] ????
     18years 155days flying_neko Re: [BM][SCE] ????
     18years 153days imdog Re: [BM][SCE] ????
    Next thread
    Posting elapsed timePosted bySubject

    18years 158days pokerguy [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 158days warrax Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 158days dcr66 Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 157days Capt-Tuttle Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 157days JackAubrey Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 157days BlackSheep Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 157days BlackSheep Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 153days imdog Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 156days DBurkeG Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 156days pokerguy Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    18years 153days imdog Re: [BM][BUG] Player Info
    Previous thread
    Posting elapsed timePosted bySubject

    18years 153days ksnake [BM][BUG] League without a scanerio!?
    18years 153days imdog Re: [BM][BUG] League without a scanerio!?
    Page generated in: 28.10059 milliseconds.